IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY ON EDUCATION SERVICES IN ETHIOPIA

RFP/012/2010

TERMS OF REFERENCE (ToR) FOR THE

IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY ON EDUCATION SERVICES IN ETHIOPIA

I. Background

Ethiopia applied to join the World Trade Organization (WTO) in January 2003. Since then, various activities have been undertaken aimed at ensuring rapid integration into the multilateral trading system.  Ethiopia submitted its Memorandum on the Foreign Trade Regime (MFTR) in December 2006.  Based on the MFTR, two rounds of questions have been received from three countries: the US, Canada and European Union and replies have been submitted to the WTO Secretariat in March of 2009. Currently, Ethiopia is preparing for the second Working Party meeting.

A number of Impact Assessment Studies have been conducted so far aimed at assessing the impact of WTO accession on the country's economy. The purpose of the study is to assist Ethiopia make informed decisions about the upcoming accession negotiations with respect to the type of commitments it may wish to make in education services.

Education services, which include primary, secondary, higher education, vocational education and other specialized trainings are part of the new services negotiations as part of the Doha Development Agenda, which began in January 2000 under Article XIX of GATS. While most members of the WTO are committed to multilateral liberalization of services trade within the service sector, the liberalization of trade in education services has seen little progress. However, numerous recently acceded countries have made specific commitments in the sector including correspondence education and language training. Within the education services sector, rapid changes are most spectacular in the area of higher education, which normally refers to post-secondary education at sub-degree and university degree levels. The worldwide market for education services is growing faster today than observed during the previous decades when the market for education services was relatively closed. This growth is driven by a range of factors, including the demand for linguistics skills and understanding of other countries as the “knowledge-based economy” expands.

Liberalization of the education services sector has an economy-wide influence as such services constitute significant inputs to all other economic activities, including trade. Trade in education services is directly associated with language, culture and also to some extent, ethnicity and religion. The crucial role of education in fostering the country’s economic growth and reducing inequality is well recognized. Liberalising trade in education services can offer important benefits and help enhance universal access to education services. Likewise it allows for a more competitive environment among services suppliers to thrive in a more dynamic domestic environment. However, liberalisation of education services can also bring challenges (e.g., brain drain, cream skimming between the public and private sector – which may result in the best students attending private schools, between education resources devoted to serving domestic or foreign markets). Given that education services are traded predominantly through student mobility across borders, a host of problems may persist particularly in developing and least developed countries in opening up their education services, in raising their standards of education service sectors, and in removing barriers to trade in the sector.

II. Objective of the Study

The overall objective of the study is to assess the implications of WTO accession on the Ethiopian education service sector. Specifically, the study will examine the implications of responding to requests for further commitments in the sector during accession negotiations. The study will also assess the potential impacts of opening the economy to trade in education services under GATS and similarly identify different options that may help prepare the sector for those reforms likely to emerge from the accession negotiations.

III. Scope of the Study

The study will include the following elements:

3.1       Economic background and importance of the Ethiopia's education services

·         Importance of a well-working education sector for a country's overall social and economic development;

·         Ethiopia's situation regarding access to different education related services (e.g., primary, secondary, tertiary, vocational); across different regions (e.g., particularly urban and rural areas); and across different segments of society (e.g., the more affluent vis-à-vis the poor and marginalized; female versus male students);

·         Areas where Ethiopia might have a comparative advantage in the education services sector.

3.2       Assessment of the Structure of Ethiopia's Education System

·         Identify and review the current main operators and actors providing education services (public, private non for profit, private for profit, domestic or foreign).

·         Identify and review the types of education services being offered and to which segments of the population and in which geographical areas are distributed.

·         Assess how the education services are being provided and financed, (e.g., on a profit or not for profit basis; the sources of funding for the latter and how sustainable they are.)

3.3       Assessment of the Trade in Education-related Services and Possible Implications

Examine the four different modes of delivery of services under GATS in the light of education services.  Evaluate Ethiopia’s current regime as applied to trade in education services. Assess the potential challenges and opportunities the Ethiopian education sector would face.

·         Review the regulatory and institutional framework governing Ethiopia's education system. Which include, inter alia:

o   The Government's universal access goals.

o   The legal/policy documents in which they are enshrined.

o   Identify the education policies and reforms the government have put in place to enhance access (e.g., focusing on public or private provision).

o   Identify the sources of financing which are available (private sector, donations, user fees, government revenues).

·         Assess whether there are any specific trade-related policies in place, and the effectiveness of such policies. These would include, inter alia:

o   Those policies which serve to expand Ethiopia's trade in education-related services and their potential benefits (e.g., to maximize benefits and minimize negative impacts).

o   Identify and review policies, if any, that encourage the return of the Ethiopian Diaspora..

o   Identify and review the e universal service obligations .

o   Recommend policies that would help harness the benefits of private sector participation from abroad; etc.

·         Analysing the impact of Ethiopia’s educational policies on the four modes of service supply in the education sector.

In relation to this:

o   examining the compatibility of existing legislations,

o   analyse the regulatory and supervisory frameworks (including key policies) vis-a vis  those rules, standards and norms detailed in the GATS.

3.5       Analyse the WTO commitments undertaken by other WTO Members (in particular LDCs WTO member countries) and indicate the possible lessons to be learned.

·         Review the commitments undertaken by other WTO Members and conduct a comparable analysis (both original WTO Members and recently acceded countries).

·         Assess the GATS commitments which Ethiopia could possibly undertake to facilitate and strengthen its attempts to enhance universal access to education services.

·         Assess and review the existing conditions and limitations that Ethiopia could attach to its commitments (e.g., carve-out for subsidies, limited commitments only for private education services etc) with a view to maximizing benefits from trade in education services.

·         The consultant may wish to refer to or discuss briefly the linkages between education and with other services sectors, considering for example:

·         Assess what the respective government policies that enhance universal access to education services are.

·         Assess the adverse effects of poor health on education services

·         Assess current regulatory/legislative environment related to education-related material (IPRs).

3.6   Develop reform scenarios. 

·         Based on an understanding of GATS and a comparative  analyses  of the education services liberalization reforms negotiated by other Members, the consultant shall develop a number of scenarios on which Ethiopia bases its negotiations strategies;

·         The scenarios shall indicate all realistic options relating to the the degree, form and timeframe for market opening, which remain consistent with recent GATS Action Plans and accessions;

·         They shall also include liberalization of trade in education services  in all four Modes; and

·         The consultant shall discuss the regulatory frameworks and policies that are necessary to ensure that liberalization engenders broad benefits;

3.7.      Assessment of  Risks, Costs and  Benefits

·         The consultants shall assess the the potential impact of  GATS on the structure, conduct and performance of the existing education services;

·         Due concern shall be given to the risk that liberalization may pose to the education system of the country; in particular, the risk it may pose to the social development goals of education;

·         The consultants shall also identify the key implementation challenges, including those associated with legislative policy, regulatory and capacity building requirements;

·         They shall identify the key benefits likely to be achieved through implementation of the scenarios defined in 3.6 for market opening, inter alia market access, including technology upgrade, improved techniques, reduced cost of  schooling, and improved reliability of the education sector; and

·         The consultants shall examine the economic rationale of opening this sector in generating trade revenue by exporting or attracting additional investment for this sector.

3.8. Assessment of the Flexibility Provisions of GATS 

The Consultants shall thoroughly examine the extent to which Ethiopia could benefit from the flexibility provisions of GATS.

3.9.     Recommendations Strategies and Action Plans

Following identification of key risks, costs and benefits, the consultants shall provide recommendations on policies, institutional reforms, capacity and incentives, which may maximize benefits while minimizing costs. These recommendations will constitute an Action Plan to prepare Ethiopia for compliance with GATS that will outline negotiating commitments in education services, contributing to the fulfillment of Ethiopia’s economic development goals. The recommendation should emphasize that the reform in the sector be undertaken as part of the overall economic reform programme. Given the importance of establishing adequate macroeconomic and regulatory policies before addressing the negotiated demands of WTO members in the education services, the consultants shall consider how to best address the macroeconomic and regulatory challenges.

IV. Methodology

The Methodology will be as proposed by the consultants and agreed with the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI). At a minimum it will include:

4.1       In-Depth Interviews.  The Consultants shall undertake in-depth interviews with key policymakers to better understand the goals and objectives of the education sector reform, as well as an understanding of perceived expectations/concerns of liberalization. The consultants shall conduct in-depth interviews with, inter alia, the Federal Ministry of Education, Regional Education Bureau, international and local non-government organizations engaged in education related activities, Ethiopian Teachers Associations, and higher education centers, both government and private ones.

4.2       Focus Groups.  The Consultants shall draw upon focus groups with policy makers and education professionals to assess the education sector’s performance in service delivery.

4.3       Data Analysis.  The Consultant shall collect data from the Ministry of Education, Ethiopian Teachers Associations, private schools and others working in the sector, and analyze the data to assess key vulnerabilities and risks.  

4.4       Quantitative scenario testing. The consultant shall deploy quantitative testing using relevant economic and social indicators.

4.5       Experiences of other LDCs in opening up the education services during accession. The experiences of recently acceded LDC WTO members shall be assessed and the lessons should be specified.

V. DELIVERABLES  

5.1       Inception Report and presentation. Within three weeks of commencing the study, the consultants shall prepare and deliver an inception report detailing the consultants’ understanding of the assignment, the final time-bound work plan, available information, program for obtaining information, tentative final report structure, data base structure and any issues to be raised for the assignment. They shall present the inception report to  the Trade Relations and Negotiation Directorate at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) and inform UNDP.

5.2       Mid-Term Report and presentation.  Within five weeks of the inception report review, the consultants shall produce a mid-term report and submit it to the Trade Relations and Negotiation Directorate at MoTI and make a presentation and the latter will call relevant stakeholders to review the report.

5.3       Final Draft Report and Presentation.  Within four weeks of the mid-term report review, the consultants shall submit a final draft report, covering all aspects of the terms of reference. The report shall be submitted to the Trade Relations and Negotiation Directorate at MoTI for comments and such comments duly incorporated and reflected as appropriate following which it will be presented to a broad audience of stakeholders during a workshop. The workshop will allow for the presentation of the preliminary results and recommendations of the study. This will directly inform the key stakeholders of the study’s preliminary findings; allow collecting their comments and making the consultants aware of the views of key stakeholders. The presentation will also offer a final opportunity to make exhaustive comments that might be incorporated into the final report. The consultants shall organize a validation workshop and deliver a public presentation of the findings of the study.

5.4    Final Report and presentation.  Within two weeks of receiving comments on the Final Draft Report, or at such time specified by the Trade Relations and Negotiation Directorate, the consultants will produce a final report, including summaries in English and in Amharic.  The consultants shall produce 20 bound copies of the final report, 50 bound copies of the summary, and 50 electronic copies in CD-ROM.  After receiving the final report, MoTI will have 30 days to notify whether or not accepted or rejected report. However, if MoTI requests modification, the consultants shall produce a revised version. The final report will become definitive upon acceptance of MoTI.

The consultants shall report to and be directly supervised by the Department at MoTI. In this regard, the consultant shall be free to seek any clarification or guidance from UNDP during the entire period of the study if the need arises.

Timing: estimated time for the study including the submission of final report will be three (3) months.

VI. SKILLS REQUIRED

The consultants shall hold an advanced university degree in Economics, Law, International Trade or the like, and substantive knowledge of WTO issues (and in particular the General Agreement on Trade in Services - GATS) and comprehensive understanding of the social and economic situation of Ethiopia. The consultants shall also have a sound knowledge of the education sector and related social policies as they are implemented in developed and developing countries as well as good analytical, research and English drafting skills.

VII. Ownership and Confidentiality

The materials produced by the consultant shall become the intellectual property of the Ministry of Trade and Industry of Ethiopia, and will not be distributed beyond the fora described above without the specific permission of the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

Evaluation Criteria

Technical proposals will be rated as per the following matrix. A firm will have to score a minimum of 70% to be considered for the next step. Financial evaluation will be conducted for the qualified and responsive technical proposals (i.e 70% and above). Financial Proposal and Technical proposal will constitute 30% and 70% respectively. The responsive and qualified firm with the highest combined rate will be issued a contract.

Submission of Technical & Financial proposals

The technical proposal should have as annexes: (i) CVs of the Consultants expected to undertake the work; (ii) A list of related consultancies/ contracts carried out satisfactorily, supported by credentials; (iii) A confirmation of the capacity to deliver the completed work by the set timeframe; ( iv)  Detailed list of capacity in terms of human and material resources of the organization is needed; (v) Proposed methodology of the study, and (vi) Copies of professional and trade licenses of the consultancy firm.

The financial proposal - cross-referenced to the sealed technical bid should be a financial bid, giving the overall cost (fees & expenses) but with as much breakdown of costs as possible to allow analysis of reasonableness of the offer.

Interested Firms should submit their Technical and Financial proposals in separate sealed Envelopes to the following address no later than 2 April 2010 :

UNDP Ethiopia

Procurement Specialist

ECA Compound Old Bld.

Vacancy No: RFP/012/2010

Fax: 251 11 5514599 / 5515147

P. O. Box 5580, Addis Ababa

Ethiopia